Modeling and Optimization Systems

DecisionPRO Autors: Vanguard Software Corp.
1100 Crescent Green
Cary NC 27511
Phone: 1-800-538-8173
Outside USA: 919-859-4101
Fax: 919-851-9457

Integrated software for management decision analysis, risk management, forecasting, optimization, and modeling.

DecisionPro combines features of artificial intelligence tools, math applications, and spreadsheets with the key quantitative methods in management. Powerful methods such as decision tree analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, optimization, expert systems, statistical analysis, discounted cash flow, and others are merged into one application.

  • Production modeling and optimization
  • Reporting
  • Production scheduling
  • Inventory planning
  • Marketing
  • New product valuation
  • Market segmentation
  • Demand analysis
  • Test market analysis
  • Marketing strategy selection
  • Price optimization
  • Promotion/advertising/sales force valuation
  • Sales and profit forecasting
  • Contingency planning Finance
  • Financial forecasting
  • Company/project valuation
  • Financial risk management
  • Investment analysis
  • Securities pricing and modeling
  • Accounting
  • Performance measures calculation
  • Management reporting
  • Capabilities

    DECISION TREES are a special type of model within DecisionPro. They are used to select the best course of action in cases where you face uncertainty as in, for example, deciding how much inventory to build when sales forecasts are uncertain; or, choosing between litigation and an out-of-court settlement. Once you have modeled a decision using a decision tree, DecisionPro will automatically analyze the tree to help you better understand and communicate the risks involved. For example, DecisionPro will automatically construct a risk profile graph or table illustrating all possible outcomes and probabilities. DecisionPro also calculates the value of knowing what will happen in the future (value of perfect information). This helps you determine how much you should spend on market or other research to refine your assumptions. You can even specify your personal risk aversion when constructing decision models.

    OPTIMIZATION capabilities include standard linear programming and nonlinear methods. This is useful for resource allocation problems such as choosing the product mix that maximizes profit given limited raw materials and resources. Unlike typical linear programming tools, DecisionPro lets you specify your objective and constraints in plain English form. Also, since DecisionPro's optimization functions are completely modular, you can build models that perform an optimization as only one small component in a more complete analysis.

    MONTE CARLO SIMULATION is a sophisticated form of what-if analysis. It allows you to replace point estimates with fuzzy values that reflect your true uncertainty. This helps you characterize the range of potential outcomes in a business situation and assess the probability of reaching specific targets. Because DecisionPro supports artificial intelligence and advanced programming techniques, you can build Monte Carlo models that simulate complex systems such as production processes or even consumer behavior.

    FORECASTING methods let you take a set of historical performance data, such as sales, and apply a variety of techniques for finding patterns in the data and extrapolating future performance. This is accomplished using techniques such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, regression, and curve fitting. DecisionPro even provides advanced forecasting tools based on Fourier spectral analysis techniques which are ideal for identifying and modeling business cycles.